A new meta-analysis published in Psychological Bulletin found that difficulties recalling specific personal memories predicted earlier onset of mental illness in youth, especially depression.
Mental illness often begins during adolescence, but efforts to prevent it have had limited success. Researchers have sought modifiable cognitive markers that could help predict which young people are at greatest risk. One such marker is autobiographical memory specificity: the ability to recall specific, detailed events from one’s past. Reduced specificity has been observed in many psychiatric disorders, but it is unclear whether it predicts illness before symptoms appear.
Uyen Doan and colleagues conducted a preregistered individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) that pooled data from 14 community-based longitudinal studies involving 9,165 children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 years. These studies were selected based on the following inclusion criteria: all had measured memory specificity using the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT), assessed participants’ mental health at least one month after baseline, and recruited participants from non-clinical populations.
Memory specificity was operationalized as the proportion of specific memories (single-incident events lasting fewer than 24 hours) recalled in response to cue words. The AMT was administered in either written or verbal format across studies, with cue words ranging in emotional valence (positive, negative, and sometimes neutral). Each study coded responses into memory types, with only truly specific memories included in the final predictor variable.
Mental health outcomes were indexed in two ways: continuous measures of symptom severity for depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress (using a range of validated scales, harmonized through z-score standardization) and binary clinical diagnoses determined through structured or semi-structured interviews. Follow-up periods ranged widely, from 2 months to over 8 years post-baseline.
Five studies provided diagnostic data, while 13 of 14 offered symptom severity data. Additional variables, including age, sex assigned at birth, prior trauma, family history of depression, and baseline symptom severity, were collected to assess moderation effects. Participants’ histories of trauma and family mental illness were coded from caregiver or self-reports. The study also assessed risk of bias and the certainty of evidence for each outcome.
Across the pooled sample, reduced memory specificity did not predict increased symptom severity of depression or posttraumatic stress over time. In fact, the strength of associations between memory specificity and these symptom outcomes was small and inconsistent across studies. Surprisingly, greater memory specificity (i.e., better recall of specific events) was linked to slightly higher anxiety symptoms, although the certainty of this result was low, and the effect was not consistently observed. The relationship between memory specificity and symptom change appeared to vary significantly by individual and study characteristics, but no clear patterns emerged across potential moderators such as age, sex, or trauma history.
In contrast, when considering the onset of psychiatric disorders, as defined by clinical diagnosis, the results were more robust. Reduced autobiographical memory specificity significantly predicted the first-time onset of any psychiatric disorder, even after accounting for baseline symptoms. This effect was especially strong for depressive disorders: children and adolescents who recalled fewer specific memories were at substantially higher risk of developing depression during the follow-up period. The association with anxiety, eating, and trauma-related disorders was less consistent or limited by fewer data points.
These findings suggest that while memory specificity may not reliably track symptom levels in the general population, it holds potential as a predictive marker for the emergence of clinically significant disorders.
The authors noted that some findings, especially those related to symptom severity and anxiety, were based on low-quality evidence and subject to considerable heterogeneity across studies.
The research, “The Predictive Power of Autobiographical Memory in Shaping the Mental Health of Young People,” was authored by Uyen Doan, Dou Hong, Leo Mares, Molly Butler, Adrian Dahl Askelund, Charlotte Gutenbrunner, Rachel Hiller, Reginald D. V. Nixon, Vanessa Puetz, Paul E. Jose, Allison Metts, Lauren B. Alloy, Brandon E. Gibb, Alison E. Hipwell, Karen Salmon, Victoria Powell, Naomi Warne, Frances Rice, and Caitlin Hitchcock.
